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The global business aviation sector is set to deliver 8,500 new business jets worth $274 billion from 2023 to 2032, according to a forecast.
The figure, forecast by Honeywell’s Global Business Aviation Outlook, is up 15 per cent in both deliveries and expenditures from the same 10-year forecast a year ago.
Surveyed operators reported new jet purchase plans on par with 2019 levels, with fleet addition rates doubling from 2021 reported intentions. Respondents’ feedback in the survey aligns with industry reports of sold-out business jet production lines for the next several years.
“The business aviation industry is greatly benefitting from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Heath Patrick, Honeywell Aerospace President, Americas Aftermarket. “The business aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and expenditure levels by 2023, which is much sooner than previously anticipated. Demand for new business jets is as high as we’ve seen it since 2015, and we expect high levels of demand and expenditures for new aircraft for several more years.”
Key findings in the 2022 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:
• New business jet deliveries in 2023 are expected to be 17 per cent higher than in 2022. Expenditures are expected to be 20 per cent higher;
• Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are up three percentage points compared with last year’s survey; this reaches 2019 levels and is equivalent to 17 per cent of the current fleet;
• Fleet additions are up for the second year in a row, doubling 2021’s rate and topping 2 per cent of the fleet.
• New jet deliveries and expenditures over the next decade are projected to grow at a 2 per cent average annual rate, in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth;
• One-third of those surveyed expect to fly more in 2023 versus 2022; 64 per cent expect to fly at least the same amount, and just 4 per cent expect to fly less;
• Large, long-range aircraft classes are expected to account for more than 70 per cent of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years;
• Just 2 per cent of surveyed operators plan to dispose of an aircraft without replacement, which is half the rate gleaned in 2021;
• Five-year purchase plans for used jets remain high, totalling 28 per cent of the current fleet and on par with last year’s results. High demand for used jets will keep pressuring the already low inventory of jets available for sale.
The business aviation industry is benefitting from a large number of first-time private aviation users and buyers, which is likely attributed to Covid-19. At times in 2022, flight activity met levels not seen since 2007, which was the busiest year ever for business aviation. Concerns about exposure to pathogens and the reduction of premium class airline services helped drive recent growth in business and private aviation. The 2022 Honeywell survey sampled first-time business aircraft owners who have made their purchases since 2020 and operators who are capturing first-time private aviation users.
Nearly 74 per cent of surveyed new users of private aviation expect to keep the same level of flying in 2023 as they did in 2022, which is 10 percentage points above the whole fleet average. Only 4 per cent expect to fly less in 2023.
Sustainability in Business Aviation
Honeywell says it is committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2035 in its operations and facilities and to driving aviation sustainability with a wide range of ready-now solutions that will support a more sustainable future for the sector.
This year’s survey features a dedicated section on operators’ current and future plans to reduce their carbon footprint during operations.
Half of this year’s surveyed operators report currently implementing at least one method to reduce their carbon footprint, which is 30 percentage points above last year’s survey.
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